What Are the Real Odds of NBA Finals for Each Team This Season?

As I sip my morning coffee and scroll through the latest NBA headlines, one question keeps nagging at me—what are the real odds of NBA Finals for each team this season? Forget the Vegas lines for a moment. I've been covering basketball for fifteen years, and this might be the most unpredictable season I've ever witnessed. The landscape shifted dramatically this summer, with superstars changing zip codes and young teams making leaps we didn't see coming. Just yesterday, I was watching footage from overseas when something caught my eye—Millora-Brown told reporters after the Macau Black Bears' send-off game against Gilas Pilipinas that his lawyers are now lodging the appeal. Now, why does an international basketball legal battle matter to our NBA conversation? It reminds us how fluid basketball fortunes can be, how a single ruling or injury can completely reshape a team's trajectory.

Let's start with the obvious contenders. The Denver Nuggets, defending champions, have maybe the best player in basketball leading them. Nikola Jokić is a force of nature, and I'd put their chances at around 22% to repeat. They've got the chemistry, the system, and that championship DNA. Then there's Boston—man, they look scary good. Adding Kristaps Porzingis to the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown core gives them a different dimension. I'd give them 18% odds, maybe even 20% if their bench holds up. Out West, Phoenix assembled a superteam that could either dominate or implode by February. Three alpha scorers sharing one basketball? That's either brilliant or disastrous. I'm leaning toward brilliant—let's say 15% odds.

But here's where it gets messy. The Milwaukee Bucks have Giannis, now paired with Damian Lillard. On paper, that's terrifying. In reality, their defense has looked suspect, and new coaches need time to implement systems. I'd still give them 12% because Giannis is that good. The Lakers? LeBron James is 38, Anthony Davis can't stay healthy, and their role players are inconsistent. Yet, I'd never count them out—maybe 8% odds, purely on legacy and playoff experience. The Warriors have Stephen Curry, which automatically makes them dangerous, but their supporting cast worries me. Draymond Green's volatility, Chris Paul's age—I'm giving them 7%, and that might be generous.

Now for the dark horses. The Oklahoma City Thunder—yes, really. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top-ten player right now, and their young core is ahead of schedule. I'd put them at 4%, which sounds low until you remember they weren't supposed to be here yet. The Sacramento Kings have that beautiful offensive system, but can they defend well enough in a seven-game series? Maybe 3%. The Cleveland Cavaliers, with Donovan Mitchell potentially in his final season there, have the talent to surprise everyone—let's say 5%.

This brings me back to that international story about Millora-Brown. His situation—fighting for his career through legal channels—parallels what fringe NBA teams face. The Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, even the Atlanta Hawks—they're all lodging their own appeals against conventional wisdom, hoping their roster moves pay off. The Hawks trading for Dejounte Murray last season was supposed to push them into contention, but they've stagnated. I'd give them 2%, maybe less. The Bulls are stuck in mediocrity—1% feels right.

Some teams, frankly, have no realistic shot. The Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons—they're playing for next year, or the year after. But that's what makes the NBA beautiful. Every so often, a team like the 2019 Raptors comes out of nowhere. I remember covering that Kawhi Leonard shot against Philadelphia—the entire basketball world shifted in that moment. That's why we watch. That's why even the 1% chances matter.

When I step back and look at the complete picture, the real odds of NBA Finals for each team this season reflect a league in transition. The old guard is clinging to relevance while new powers emerge. My personal take? I'm betting on Denver versus Boston in the Finals, with the Nuggets winning in six. But ask me again next week, and I might change my mind. That's the beauty of basketball—nothing is certain until the final buzzer sounds.