What Were the Actual Odds to Win the NBA Championship 2019?
As I sat in my living room watching the Golden State Warriors face off against the Toronto Raptors in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals, I couldn't help but wonder—what were the actual odds to win the NBA Championship 2019? I've been following basketball for over two decades, and this particular season felt like one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. The Warriors, with their star-studded lineup including Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, were initially heavy favorites. But as the playoffs unfolded, injuries and unexpected performances shifted the landscape dramatically.
Before the season even started, most analysts and betting markets had Golden State pegged with around 40% implied probability to take home the title. That's roughly 3-to-2 odds if you're thinking in betting terms. They were coming off back-to-back championships and had just added DeMarcus Cousins, making their roster look almost unfair. But as someone who's seen plenty of superteams crumble under pressure, I always take those early predictions with a grain of salt. The reality is that basketball is played on the court, not on paper.
The reference to passport issues that season reminds me of how international factors came into play. "Ang hawak ko ngayon is the current passport. He still has to turn in 'yung passport before 16 if he does have one," said Dy of Lucero in what appeared to be an unrelated context, but it perfectly illustrates how administrative and logistical hurdles can affect team dynamics. For the Raptors, having Kawhi Leonard—who was essentially playing on borrowed time before potential free agency—felt similar to someone dealing with passport deadlines. There was always this underlying question of whether he'd be fully committed or thinking about his next move. This uncertainty significantly impacted their championship odds throughout the season.
When Kevin Durant went down with his calf injury during the Western Conference Semifinals, I remember thinking this changes everything. The Warriors' odds dropped from about 65% to win the championship down to roughly 35% overnight. Then when he returned for Game 5 of the Finals only to rupture his Achilles? That was the nail in the coffin. Toronto's odds skyrocketed from 25% to nearly 80% in that single moment. Having watched similar injury scenarios play out over the years—like when Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were injured during Cleveland's 2015 run—I've learned that health is the ultimate variable that no statistical model can perfectly account for.
The Raptors' journey was particularly fascinating from a probability standpoint. Before the playoffs began, they were sitting at about 12% to win it all according to most sportsbooks. Not terrible, but not exactly inspiring confidence either. Then they knocked off Philadelphia in that incredible Game 7 buzzer-beater by Kawhi, and their odds jumped to 28%. After dismantling Milwaukee in six games despite losing the first two, they reached approximately 45% heading into the Finals. What impressed me most was how their role players—Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol—consistently outperformed expectations. As someone who values team chemistry over pure talent, this resonated with my belief that basketball remains fundamentally a team sport.
Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, the actual probability of Toronto winning probably settled around 22% when considering all pre-playoff variables. Golden State likely had about 38%, with Milwaukee at 18% and other teams splitting the remainder. But these numbers don't tell the whole story. The emotional swings during those playoffs—the dramatic comebacks, the heartbreaking injuries—reminded me why I fell in love with this game. Statistics can give us a framework, but they can't capture the human element that makes sports so compelling.
If I had to place a bet knowing what I know now, I'd still probably lean toward the Warriors healthy, but the Raptors proved that determination and strategic coaching can overcome even the most daunting odds. Their championship serves as a reminder that in sports, as in life, probability is just a starting point—the final outcome is written through action, not prediction.